By Gregory K. Taylor
The battle over the South China Sea
Islands has erupted again. It seems this happens every few years in
order for one country to put another contending country on notice
that there is still an unresolved issue of ownership. This action is
usually taken by the country that feels its sovereignty has been most
recently impinged. Since April of 2012 there has been a rekindling of
these antediluvian disputes as to who has ownership to several
islands claimed by the surrounding countries of Vietnam, Japan, the
Philippines, China, and to a lesser degree Brunei and Malaysia.
The most recent flare up involves the
countries of Japan, the Philippines, and China. Earlier this year, a
group of Filipino fisherman decided to occupy an island in the
Spratly archipelago that both China and the Philippines claim. This
occupation was reputed to be for the exercise of commercial fishing
rights, but everyone knew this was about sovereignty--and wars have
been fought over less. The immediate stand off brought into question
the strength of the alliance between the United States and the
Philippines that date back to WWII.
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| Spratly Islands |
The Philippines seemed to be gambling
that the United States would come to its military aid if the Chinese
pushed the issue forcefully. And the Chinese gamble would be that the
United States was too preoccupied with its war on terror in two
Middle Eastern countries to involve itself in a war with the likes
and size of China.
Four months later, Japan staked its
claim to another set of disputed Islands known as the Senkaku islands
to the Japanese and the Daoyutai islands to the Chinese. This was
accomplished by a dubious purchase from the Kurihara family who the
Japanese refer to as the “private owners.” This outraged the
Chinese government and with some perceptible irony the Taiwanese
government as well. After all, the two Chinese governments proffer,
for acceptance, identical claims to said islands. The question is
would two wealthy economic powers risk a war over inconsequential
islands whose mineral and oil capacity are speculative at best?
Would they risk destabilizing the entire region over principle?
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| Senkaku Islands |
History suggests it may well depend on
who feels the most aggrieved. One only needs to look to the
Falkland/Malvinas islands for an example. Claimed by the British
from 1690 and the Argentines in the 1800s the islands lie 300 miles
off the coast of Argentine and 8,000 miles from Britain. Possessing
no intrinsic value with an inhospitable environment few believed
these two contemporary societies would fight a war over a desolate
piece of land. Surely, cooler heads would prevail and sort this
interruption out diplomatically. Well, cooler heads did not prevail
and the principle of sovereignty decided on war.
So, will Japan and China fight a battle
over these islands? Will China and the Philippines go to war over
principle. There is too much for everyone to lose. This isn't the
1982 Falkland/Malvinas crisis where most people saw no global or
regional consequence for that war, but more of a curiosity and
flexing of muscle. There is just too much money to lose for the
world economy if Japan, China, and the Philippines choose war.
Accordingly, public protestations and sabre-rattling for home
consumption while real back-channel negotiations are taking place
will, for the foreseeable future, put this issue to bed and the east
will be as it was before.
Gregory K. Taylor is currently in Taiwan








